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Quantitative research
Comparable windows. Visible assumptions. Risk measured from the record.
$XAI / USDS&P 500Nasdaq 100Semiconductors
to . Shared observations: 61. Only dates present in all four series are used; absent closes are not filled. These are observed market prices, not portfolio returns.
Each market's retained observation window
| Market | First observation | Latest observation | Window change | Maximum drawdown | Observations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $XAI / USD | -15.80% | -28.35% | 90 | ||
| S&P 500 | +16.76% | -9.10% | 260 | ||
| Nasdaq 100 | +22.78% | -12.12% | 260 | ||
| Semiconductors | +98.43% | -28.61% | 260 |
Rows can cover different windows and are not a performance ranking. Window change uses the first and last retained close. Maximum drawdown measures the largest peak-to-trough decline inside that retained window, not the full trading history. Dividends, trading costs and execution are not modeled.
What these calculations mean
- Price change
- (Last close / first close - 1) x 100.
- Window drawdown
- For each close, compare with the highest earlier close in the same window. Report the most negative percentage.
- Common-window chart
- Intersect the observation dates, then divide every retained close by its first common-date close and multiply by 100. Different market closing times can still affect comparisons.
- Liquidity indicator
- The Black Ledger's existing indicator is retained separately. It is not a price-return calculation or a probability.
Economy snapshot: black-ledger-2026-09-11. Data cutoffs are shown per series. Economy data