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Black Ledger

Liquidity Improves as Risk Measures Rebound

Lower Treasury cash and real yields coincided with firmer equities and higher XAI activity, but one day does not establish causation.

Water moves from a high reserve through measured channels and risk beacons into a broad lower basin.
Technical illustration

The pressure score rose from 56 to 57 and remained neutral. Net dollar liquidity increased by $25 billion to $5.774 trillion on September 17 as the Treasury General Account fell by $19.033 billion to $972.675 billion. The ten-year real yield eased seven basis points to 2.61%, and the bank cash buffer rose 0.218 percentage points to 11.885%. Overnight reverse repo usage increased only $0.3 billion, too small to change the broader reading.

Risk measures moved in the same direction over their separate observation windows. The Nasdaq-100 drawdown narrowed by 0.64 percentage points, the semiconductor drawdown narrowed by 2.20 points and VIX fell 0.63 to 14.81. XAI closed at $0.00758 with volume up $180,974.90 and open interest up $161,146.70; funding was unchanged. Concentration and CAPE rose modestly. This is a broad one-day rebound, not proof that liquidity caused asset prices or that the move will persist.

Liquidity pressure indicator
57 score
Net dollar liquidity
5.77 USD-trillion
Treasury General Account
972.68 USD-billion
Ten-year real yield
2.61 percent
Bank cash buffer
11.89 percent
Nasdaq 100 drawdown
-3.32 percent
Semiconductor drawdown
-18.54 percent
VIX
14.81 index
S&P 500 CAPE
40.94 multiple
Top-ten constituent weight
39.86 percent
XAI holder addresses
50,024 addresses
Premarket-labelled balances: six-month change
24.22 million-XAI
XAI spot close
0.00758 USD
Recorded XAI spot volume
334,924.7 USD
Recorded XAI open interest
1,494,811.8 USD

References