Back to collectionYield Projections Run Into the Lockup Period
The argument over buying a Sentry Key had not faded after the contest. One participant calculated an annual yield of 70% now, 35% in two months, and just 12.5% after the next halving; redemption, he said, also involved a lockup of 15 to 180 days. The previous day, no one had disputed the price decline; now they disagreed over how to calculate future returns.
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The argument over buying a Sentry Key had not faded after the contest. Attention moved from event prizes to returns after purchase and the conditions for exiting. Someone in the group wanted the attractive annual yield figures laid out over time.
One participant calculated an annual yield of 70% now, 35% in two months, and just 12.5% after the next halving; redemption, he said, also involved a lockup of 15 to 180 days. He called the lockup the real barrier. Another argued that even a worst case estimate of 20% annual yield over the medium to long term would beat Buffett. Neither calculation settled the dispute. The order book kept thinning, and XAI reached $0.125.
The previous day, no one had disputed the price decline; now they disagreed over how to calculate future returns. One side feared being unable to exit quickly as yield fell, while the other still valued a possible longer term yield. The Night Watchman decided to ask what assumptions each side had used before discussing whether a purchase made sense. Those projections could not remove the risk of the lockup.